TCoPS - 40

become waste. The authors of this report also assumed
that this proportion has remained constant over time.
◦ Input 6: Plastic production in 2019 estimated by
PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) and
Conversio Market & Strategy GmbH as 368 million
metric tonnes.305
● The following steps were taken to estimate the
cost of lifetime GHG emissions from the plastic
produced in 2019:
Step 1: The authors estimated the total emissions from
production processes in 2015 by summing the emissions
from resin production (1.085Gt) and conversion (535Mt).
This estimated the total emissions from production
processes in 2015 as ~1.6Gt.
Step 2: The authors calculated the emissions from
production processes per tonne of production by dividing
total emissions from production processes (1.6Gt) by
the estimated tonnes of plastic produced in 2015 (380
million). This estimated ~4.3 tonnes of CO2
of plastic produced.
Step 3: To estimate the emissions from production
processes of the plastic produced in 2019, the authors
multiplied the tonnes of plastic produced in 2019 (368
million) by the tonnes of CO2
e per tonne of plastic
produced (~4.3). This estimated the emissions from
production processes of the plastic produced in 2019
as ~1.6 billion tonnes of CO2
e. This includes the
simplifying assumption that the CO2
e intensity of plastic
production processes has stayed constant since 2015.
Step 4:To calculate the emissions from end-of-life
processes per tonne of plastic waste, the authors divided
the end-of-life emissions in 2015 (162 Mt) by the tonnes
of plastic waste generated in 2015 (302 million). This
estimated ~0.53 tonnes of CO2
e per tonne of waste
generated.
Step 5: To calculate the tonnes of plastic produced in
2019 that will become waste, the authors multiplied the
tonnes of plastic produced in 2019 (368 million) by the
proportion of plastic produced that becomes waste (70%).
This estimated ~258 million tonnes of the plastic
produced in 2019 will become waste.
Step 6: To calculate the total end-of-life emissions
attributable to the plastic produced in 2019, the authors
multiplied the end-of-life emissions per tonne of plastic
waste (0.53 tonnes of CO2
e) by the tonnes of plastic
produced in 2019 that becomes waste (258 million).
This estimated the emissions from end-of-life processes
attributable to plastic produced in 2019 as ~137
million tonnes of CO2
assumption that the CO2
in 2019 as ~1.7Gt.
Step 8: To calculate the total cost of GHG emissions
incurred over the lifetime of the plastic produced in
2019, the authors multiplied the CO2
e from the plastic
lifetime (1.7 billion tonnes) by the cost of carbon
per tonne (US$100). This estimated the cost of
GHG emissions from the lifetime of the plastic
produced in 2019 as ~ US$171 billion.
Quantifiable societal lifetime cost of plastic
over time:
● The following inputs were used to estimate the
societal lifetime cost of plastic over time:
provided by WEF. ◦ Input 1: Projected growth of plastic production
e per tonne
306 They state that according to ICIS,
projected industry growth is 3.8% annually between
2015-2030 and according to International Energy Agency's
World Energy Outlook 2015307
3.5% annually from 2030-2050.
, the projected growth is
◦ Input 2: Plastic production in 2019 estimated by
PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) and
Conversio Market & Strategy GmbH as 368 million
metric tonnes.308
◦ Input 3: Societal lifetime cost of the plastic
produced in 2019 estimated by the authors of this report
as ~US$2.3-4.4 trillion. This is the sum of: i) waste
management cost, ii) ecosystem service cost, iii) cost of
GHG emissions.
e. This includes the simplifying
e intensity of the end-of-life
process has remained constant since 2015.
Step 7: To calculate the total emissions from across
the lifetime of the plastic produced in 2019, the authors
summed the estimated emissions from production
processes of the plastic produced in 2019 (1.6Gt) with
the emissions from the end-of-life stage of the plastic
produced in 2019 (137 Mt). This estimated the total
emissions from across the lifetime of the plastic produced
WWF INTERNATIONAL 2021
◦ Input 4: Social discount rate estimated as 2% based
on Drupp et al. survey where more than 2/3 of 200 experts
were comfortable with a median SDR of 2%.309
The following steps were taken to estimate the
societal lifetime cost of plastic over time:
Step 1: To estimate the future plastic production up to
and including 2040, the authors started from the plastic
production in 2019 (368 million tonnes) and applied the
projected growth rate of 3.8% to estimate annual plastic
production up to and including 2030. The authors then
applied the projected growth rate of plastic from 2030-2050
(3.5%) to estimate plastic production for 2031-2040.
Step 2: To calculate the societal lifetime cost per tonne of
plastic produced, the authors divided the societal lifetime cost
of the plastic produced in 2019 (US$2.3-4.4 trillion) by the
estimated tonnes of plastic produced in 2019 (368 million).
This estimated the societal lifetime cost of plastic per tonne of
plastic produced as between ~US$6,244-11,937.
Step 3: To calculate the societal lifetime cost of plastic from
the plastic produced in each year from 2020-2040, the
authors multiplied the societal lifetime cost of plastic per
tonne ($6,244-11,937) by the projected plastic production in
each year.
TCoPS

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